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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."